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Wahrscheinlichkeit für 73 Buy-in downswing

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Wahrscheinlichkeit für 73 Buy-in downswing - 03-03-2010, 21:44
(#1)
Benutzerbild von casinoterror
Since: Jul 2009
Posts: 11
Hallo community,

wie der Titel schon sagt würd ich gerne wissen wie hoch die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist, dass ein Downswing von 73 Buy-ins passiert, und die über jetzt 220 Turniere.

Zur weiteren Information: Ich spiele hauptsächlich die 3,25er 45mann turbos. Bei denen bin ich jetz seit ca. 20 Turnieren ohne ITM Platz!!!

Hab mein game auch schon analysiert, is auf einem hohen niveau, also daran liegt es nicht

Aber gefühlsmäßig gewinn ich vielleicht 10% aller stark dominierten situationen... Busto gehen mit AA und KK ist Alltag

Wär euch echt dankbar wenn mir einer von euch sagen könnte wie wahrscheinlich sowas ist

mfg
 
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03-03-2010, 22:28
(#2)
Benutzerbild von Todde1972
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 3.119
ohne die hände zu posten kann da sicher niemand genaues zu sagen.

AA, KK verlieren kann jeder, aber auch weglegen, wenn man geschlagen ist?


Get on your bike
 
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03-03-2010, 22:39
(#3)
Benutzerbild von casinoterror
Since: Jul 2009
Posts: 11
Die Hände braucht man doch sicher nicht zu der Berechnung!

Außerdem sind so gut wie alle AA KK entscheidungen ein allin push bei den turbos außer in den early stages, da is mir es schon bewusst auf welchen flops ich folden muss

Mal die Daten nochmal:

Average ROI: 20%
Average Buyin: 3$
Turnieranzahl während des downswings: ca.220
Gewinn: -200$

Daraus muss man doch irgendwie die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines solchen Downswings berechnen können

Wenn noch andere Angaben fehlen, posted es bitte!

mfg
 
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03-03-2010, 22:47
(#4)
Benutzerbild von Dölli89
Since: Apr 2008
Posts: 1.630
BronzeStar
Was bringt es dir, dass du die Wahrscheinlichkeit für solch einen Downswing weißt? Richtig, nichts!

Wenn du aus dem Downswing rauskommen willst, poste Hände, damit dir andere Leute objektiv sagen können, ob deine Spielweise wirklich ideal war. Oft schleichen sich im Downswing gravierende Fehler ein, die man selbst nicht sieht. Das liegt daran, dass im Downswing die subjektive Wahrnehmung besonders extrem greift.

Also wenn du an deinem Spiel arbeiten willst und ein besserer Spieler werden willst, dann poste hier Hände.

Hier noch ein paar nützliche Links dazu


Richtlinen zum posten von Beispielhänden

[How to] Hände konvertieren

Geändert von Dölli89 (03-03-2010 um 22:49 Uhr). Grund: Links eingefügt
 
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03-03-2010, 22:54
(#5)
Benutzerbild von casinoterror
Since: Jul 2009
Posts: 11


ICH SUCHE HIER NICHT NACH TIPPS EIN BESSERER SPIELER ZU WERDEN!!!

Für was gibt es SnG wizard?? und ich habe mein Spiel bereits analysiert und weiß dass meine moves fast immer richtig sind ausgenommen von einigen ICM pushes die mir um die max. -0,10$ equity einbrachten

Ich will lediglich die Wahrscheinlichkeit wissen
ALSO MATHEMATIKER AN DIE FRONT (und nicht über gespielte Hände undso klugscheißen)

Wie man die Varianz für Cashgames berechnet undsoweiter weiß ich auch, dank 2+2 und wo es dafür simulationen gibt ebenso,
aber eben nicht für SNG!

Also die Leute die eine Ahnung von Varianz in Sit N Go's haben sind hier richtig und diejenigen die mein Spiel analysieren wollen sind hier falsch!

mfg

B.z.w.: Ist so eine Rechnung überhaupt möglich?

Geändert von casinoterror (03-03-2010 um 23:11 Uhr).
 
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03-03-2010, 23:28
(#6)
Benutzerbild von Todde1972
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 3.119
um die wahrscheinlichkeit berechnet zu bekommen bist du hier falsch.

was willst du hören?
einen downswing kann man nicht von anfang bis ende festlegen.
vielleicht geht er ja noch ein jahr oder 1137 weiter sngs.
alles ist möglich. kpax


Get on your bike
 
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04-03-2010, 00:02
(#7)
Benutzerbild von krendipont
Since: Sep 2007
Posts: 1.070
Ich stell den Artikel doch einfach mal hier rein:

Variance. We as poker players love to hate this facet of poker and it haunts us every time we log in to play or sit down at a table in a casino. It is the double-edged sword of poker; it creates the excitement of winning, and just as soon brings the doom of losing. Without variance, poker would be the definition of the ultimate grind; a continual gradual linear slope (hopefully upward) with no fluctuations. For beginning players who are unskilled, upward variance is the impetus that gives them short-term gains and “confidence” to move up in stakes or play more. However, most experienced and high-volume SNG grinders must invariably experience the #1 bane of their existence. The player has absolutely no control over this phenomenon, which is why it is so frustrating when he is on the short end of it.

The vast majority of SNG players simply do not understand variance. It is something that deserves our respect and commands attention because it can be so ruthless sometimes. After all, complex math and theory is deeply involved in its calculations, but rest assured, that will not be dealt with in this article. All too often, players complain in chats such as these: “another river. That makes what like 10 today??” or “obv jokerstars. sngs are a joke im down like 15 buyins today how bad do I f***ing run???” What they just don't realize is that HUGE swings, on the order of 50-100 or more buy-in downswings are not only way more common than they think, but statistically inevitable. In addition, most people do not understand the concept of sample size; just because someone was a winner over 1,000 games does not necessarily mean he is a real winner, as we will see later. Since the games have improved drastically over the years, high sustainable ROIs greater than 15% at any reasonable stake are simply not feasible anymore. Players have become too good. ROIs in the low teens (and in the single digits for even the best regs at the highest stakes, 200s+) combined with the number of tables that regulars play create a recipe for a variance nightmare. Players are literally trading money back and forth because significant edges just aren't there anymore.

But not to worry! The picture isn't all bleak and games are still beatable. This article is meant to offer the reader some practical insights into variance as well as interesting numbers and statistics. In describing the situations of variance and its calculations, a program known as ROI Simulator has been used extensively. It can be found with a quick search on Google or 2+2, and YouTube has video tutorials of how to use the simple program. The program takes a given input, runs as many simulations/sessions of SNGs as the user desires, and outputs statistical characteristics that were recorded from all those games. These include overall simulated ROI, in the money (ITM)/out of the money (OOTM) streaks, and the buy-in (BI) downswings. Let's take an example calculation to give you an idea of what's going on.

For this example, let's assume the player plays 1 marathon session of 1,000 single table $210+15 turbo SNGs on Pokerstars. 1,000 games is a standard benchmark number that apparently can determine if a player is a consistent winner. Let's also assume that the player is a decent regular and places 1st 13% of the time, and gets 2nd and 3rd 12% of the time, for a 37% ITM rate. The math works out to a 5% ROI which is pretty decent for those SNGs. After a simulation of this session 1,000 times, the result was a simulated ROI (ROI for each 1,000 game set) that ranged from as low as -8% to a whopping 25%. In only 23% of the 1,000 SNG sets was the simulated ROI within one percent of the actual 5%. This goes to show that a sample size of 1,000 games is hardly enough to predict your true ROI by any means.

Here are some more interesting ROI statistics in non-pargraph format, for the sake of easier of reading:

In 12% of those 1,000 SNG sessions, the player experienced a negative ROI
In another 10% of those sessions, the player had a 0% ROI.
What about upswings! In 14% of those 1,000 sessions, the player had more than double the “true” 5% ROI. He even had a few sessions of 16-17% ROI.

The program also outputs buy-in (BI) downswing statistics as well as ITM/OOTM streaks. Here were some interesting stats:

In 1% of sessions, the player experienced an 86+ BI downswing.
10% of the sessions had a 62 or greater BI downswing, with the greatest downswing at 123 buy-ins.
The most common downswing was 34 BI's.
In only 10% of sessions did the player experience a 24 BI or less downswing.
The player once had 13 ITM finishes in a row.
The most common OOTM streak was 12 games, with the max at an astonishing 32 in a row.
In 10% of sessions, the player experienced a 17 game or more OOTM streak.
In 58% of sessions, there was a 12 game or more OOTM streak.

Just for fun, a few simulations of a single session of 1,000,000 games was run. Some nifty stats – there was a 306 BI downswing, the longest ITM streak was 17 games, and the longest OOTM streak was 37 games!

One final practical calculation that yielded a telling point was the simulation of 365 sessions of 50 games each. Every calculation represented one “year” of playing. In doing so, the range of simulated ROIs obtained was 2.43% to 7.54%. In other words, if you were to play a 50 game session every day of the year, at the end of the year, your ROI could be as much as 50% off your actual ROI, given the assumptions made above. Even after that much grinding (18,000 games), after which incidentally you would be Supernova Elite on PS, your true ROI is still some ****le thing that simply depends on...variance.

The complete flipside to this entire article is that there are more to ROI and variance calculations than the percentage of the times you get 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, which formed the entire basis of all the numbers. For one, a player cannot maintain the exact same playing styles in every game constantly; a poker player is a fluid, dynamic, and thinking person so ROIs and all of that will be in a state of perpetual flux. Also, it is very difficult if not impossible to know how often a player finishes 1st through 3rd. This article has painted a tremendously bleak picture of variance, as we all naturally navigate towards the negatives. After all, you don't often hear people complain “Damn it, I'm winning heaps again, up 50 buy-ins this week. What am I going to do?” For all the negatives of variance, there are of course the tremendous upsides of it – upswings.

To conclude, this article assumed the player was a decent winner at the highest stakes. Even as a regular winner, his numbers are crazy, sobering, and ultimately invaluable to a SNG grinder because understanding of how badly one can really run is crucial to maintaining an appropriate psyche. Even winning players will go through unbelivable stretches of bad luck, so without a proper understanding of, or the aforementioned respect for variance, they may make uninformed or less than ideal decisions about their game. All we can hope for as SNG grinders is that we prepare ourselves and our bankrolls to handle the swings. Everything else is up to variance.

azntracker



krendiponts Shares


Lache und die Welt lacht mit dir, weine und du weinst allein

Geändert von krendipont (04-03-2010 um 01:21 Uhr).
 
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04-03-2010, 00:47
(#8)
Benutzerbild von thommy3
Since: Dec 2007
Posts: 272
73 buyins down und trotzdem noch 20% ROI. Wir können gerne tauschen.
 
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04-03-2010, 06:34
(#9)
Benutzerbild von FiftyBlume
Since: Jan 2009
Posts: 1.950
Kommt vor, allerdings relativ selten xD....mir gings nicht anders, bin fast broke gegangen deswegen-.- I-wie wollte der Downswinging auch in unteren Leveln nicht verschwinden(oder meine Adaption war einfach schlecht, was auch gut sein kann).


20 Turniere ohne ITM....je nach Spieltechnik, gewünschter Stacksize etc.

Bei durschnittlich 10% ITM(was ja schon recht gut ist, wenn man auf Heads Up spielt):

1-0,9^20=12,15% kein Cash
20% ITM
1-0,8^20=1,15%
50 Turniere ohne Cash:
0,5153%
0,001427%
 
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04-03-2010, 16:18
(#10)
Benutzerbild von Madstar18
Since: Aug 2008
Posts: 35
natürlich ist dein SPiel korrekt.Natürlich hast du grad einen downswing der nichts mit deinem SPiel zu tun hat.

Und natürlich kommt nach dem downswing ein entsprechender krasser upswing mit der gleichen unveränderten spielweise.



________________________________


Scherz denn das gilt nur für profis und Veteranen die sich auf eine hohe Ebene gekämpft haben und wirklich mal son downswing nach nem langen upswing erleben.
Gegen Downswings kann man ankämpfen denn selbst wenn man eine Zeit lang Perfekt spielt schleichen sich Fehler ein.Wir sind Menschen und keine Maschinen und neigen daher eher zu Fehlern.
Dafür können wir uns aber auch wieder selbst ''reparieren''.



Bissl behindert geschrieben.